I’m feeling more optimistic now that the season is coming to
a close and we’ll soon be jumping into the playoffs. Golden State went for 73 wins against the
very strange collection of NBA castoffs and characters that is the Grizzlies
and won. Matt Barnes did his best to
knock Curry out of the playoffs short of getting kicked out but it didn’t work. The little guy is tougher than he looks. The
collection of characters on the mash unit that is the Grizzlies is
hilarious. Barnes, Born Ready, the
Birdman, P.J. Hairston, and Zach Randolph is an extremely strange group of weirdoes. I was really hoping that these misfits would
play the Clippers in the first round but instead they’re going to be demolished
by the Spurs. They would have lost to
the Clippers as well but I guarantee there would have been some dudes getting
kicked out for flagrant fouls. I love to
watch the Spurs play against anyone but I’m not sure I’m going to be glued to
Memphis vs. San Antonio. – I’m
predicting a San Antonio sweep --
Those
Clippers are going to square up against Portland and that actually might be an
interesting match up. Portland’s front
line will be a bit over matched but at least there’s the potential of an upset. The Clippers should pull it out, but mentally
they’re a bit of a fragile team and were Portland to win one of the games in
Los Angeles I could see the Clippers tightening up. I’ll be surprised if LA doesn’t pull it out
eventually. Portland is a couple
rotation players away from being a really dangerous team. If LA doesn’t go at least a few rounds deep I
think they might have to undergo wholesale changes by the next season. There’s a lot on the line in the playoffs for
the core of Griffin, Jordan, and Paul.
Doc the GM will have some soul searching to do if they don’t make it to
the finals. That’s a tough position for
a team that is clearly the 3rd or 4th best in the West
and is looking at facing the Golden State juggernaut in the second round. Can Doc say that the season wasn’t a bust if
they get knocked out in the 2nd round even if it’s to the eventual
champions? Portland is playing with
house money. No matter the outcome of
the series their season was an incredible success. Terry Stotts worked miracles with this team
and Lillard and McCollum stepped up and established a core back court for years
to come. –I’m picking Clippers in 6 --
OKC vs.
Dallas should not be competitive given all the injuries the Mavericks have
suffered. Rick Carlisle is too good a
coach though to get swept. They’ll win a
game or two and you’ll wonder how it happened.
OKC is flawed, but Westbrook and Durant are too talented to lose this
series. The future for both teams is
murky and confusing. I can’t in any way
see how switching from Brooks to Donovan as coach helped the Thunder. They play virtually the same alternating one
on one style of basketball. They’re
still searching for five guys who can be on the court when things really
matter. It’s both bad coaching and bad
GM work in tandem when there are no clear-cut solutions for your roster. They’ve got offensive lineups that aren’t
that great and defensive lineups that don’t scare anyone and not enough
effective two-way players. I truly have
no idea how Cantor is making so much money to play basketball. Any team dependent on Dion Waiters for
anything is in trouble. And yet, they’ve
got two of the best few players in the game.
The talent of Durant and Westbrook can be transcendent though neither
one has learned to play off the ball comfortably. Durant is one of the greatest scorers ever
but if you compare him to Curry you see a couple small flaws. Curry can dominate the ball one on one but
he’s comfortable passing it off and switching to running off screens mode which
allows the team to run different sets and gets everyone else involved. Neither Durant nor Westbrook is comfortable
in this role and the over all goal of their offense is to get one or the other
into their comfort spots on the floor so that they can school someone. This is old time ball that is capable of working
but seems antiquated in today’s NBA. It
can work if one of your guys is channeling Jordan but that’s tough given modern
defense and the ability for teams to zone up and switch and overload. OKC should scare the crap out of everyone
they play in the playoffs but eventually Westbrook will fire up too many errant
3 pointers and their offense will stagnate and someone will execute them out of
the gym. I have no idea what happens to
Dallas going forward. They just don’t
look positioned to make many moves next year but they’ve got Carlyle and so
they’ll compete for the playoffs no matter what. Championship aspirations for them seem
distant. OKC’s future is murky too. They need to go deep into the playoffs and
play well. Unfortunately they’re looking
at San Antonio in the second round.
Chances are that they do not win that series but they’ve definitely got
a chance. They are precisely the kind of
athletic team that would create problems for San Antonio in the past. I don’t think that’s the case this season
though. Kawhi can make Durant work and
the Spurs can afford to put Green on Westbrook as the Thunder still haven’t
located a competent off guard. In past
games OKC has tried to punish Tony Parker on the block with Waiters but frankly
San Antonio’s goal should be to have Waiters shoot as much as he wants. Yes, go ahead and punish our little guard if
it means Waiters island becoming a more remote location. Another difference for the Spurs this year is
that Aldridge makes them much more athletic and big on the front line. His overall size is under rated and he’s much
quicker than you might think looking at him.
Like the Clippers, OKC is in the unenviable position of potentially
being knocked out of the playoffs early enough to put doubt in the mind of
Durant that it’s worth returning. What’s
going to change in the next few seasons for OKC? -- I’m picking OKC in 6 --
Golden
State vs. Houston is not terribly exciting to me. You’ll see Harden get fouled a great deal and
he’ll dominate the ball and put up big numbers but Thompson matches up pretty
well with him. Beverley will piss off
Curry but outside of deliberately hurting Curry and knocking him out of the
series (I wouldn’t put this past him) the Rockets are just too outmatched to
make this interesting. Fortunately
Golden State is good fun enough to watch that they can probably overcome the
boredom of watching Harden shoot free throws and make these games worth
watching to some extant. Houston will
have a lot of off-season decisions to make.
What is the market for Howard?
Even if it’s less then he wants it to be I just don’t see him
returning. Beyond Harden what do they
have? It’s going to take some serious
magic to resuscitate this team. Amazing
considering they were in the conference finals last year (that took a lot of
luck though). I don’t see what the point
of firing McHale was? Why didn’t they
let him play out the season? As for
Golden State, contrary to what Barkley might think, I find it hard to imagine they
don’t win it all. Anything can happen I
suppose and certainly an injury could radically change their fortunes (they
been really lucky with injuries although it helps that they don’t play anyone
too many minutes over the course of the season), but they are clearly the best
team and the dominant team can usually win out in a best of seven series.
One more thing I’d like to point
out that fascinated me on the last night of the regular season. Contrast Curry’s 46 points on 24 shots (10
for 19 from 3 and 5 for 5 from 2) in 29 minutes with Kobe’s 60 points on 50
shots (6 for 21 from 3 and 16 for 29 from 2) in 42 minutes for the last game of
the season and you can extrapolate a difference in eras. It’s amazing how much efficiency is valued in
today’s NBA compared to the past. Both
games were exciting but Curry was incredibly efficient in helping his team win
their 73rd game of the year and Kobe was incredibly inefficient in
helping his team win their 17th game of the season. Allen Iverson just got into the hall of fame
and don’t get me wrong. I loved
Iverson. What he did at his size was
amazing. But just imagine if he could
have learned to shoot. What Curry has
done this season is unprecedented. He’s
averaged over 30 points per game and shot over 50% from the field for the
season, over 45% from 3, and over 90% from the line. That’s just crazy. – I’m picking Golden State in a sweep --
The East,
on paper at least, has some interesting matchups from a competitive
standpoint. I don’t think anyone will
beat Cleveland but every team out there has a chance to make them sweat. They
are a fragile team from a psychological standpoint that seems like they genuinely
don’t like each other and they’re completely dependent on the continuing
dominance of Lebron James. Without him
they are terrible. We’ve seen over the
last month or so that he still has another gear few players can match but what
happens when Irving dribbles too much and fails to get any assists and when
Love bricks 3 pointers and plays atrocious defense? Lebron can sulk and sometimes his greatness
is more of the watch him go variety than the inspirational variety. The Cleveland organization has once again
made huge personnel mistakes and put a flawed collection of misfits around
James. I feel like the Cleveland
organization learned nothing from their original mistakes the first time around
with Lebron. Once again they rushed into
constructing a team with no flexibility that overpays role players. Like OKC they have no idea what 5 players
should be on the court when games matter.
Detroit is just happy to be in the playoffs and though they should be
over matched they might be loose and that’s dangerous. They have some talent and Van Gundy is a much
better coach than anyone in Cleveland. I
could see them winning a game or two and getting Lebron pissed off at some of
his teammates but they’re not going to win the series. That’s fine.
Van Gundy has them headed in the right direction and they should be
better next season and well positioned for the future. Cleveland on the other hand must get to the
finals. Even doing so will not make
their season a success. They don’t have
to win it all to keep their team but they definitely have to be competitive and
close to winning in the finals or Lebron is going to start demanding they do
their best to trade all the dudes he doesn’t like for his friends. My crystal ball tells me there’s going to be
a lot of soul searching in Cleveland over the off-season as Lebron is not good
enough to beat either the Warriors or the Spurs… -- I’m predicting Cleveland in
5--
Atlanta vs.
Boston is actually going to be really fun to watch (for me at least). Both teams are well coached and play fun
basketball. Millsap rarely gets
mentioned as a top player but he totally kicks butt. Horford is good, Korver remembered how to
shoot and Teague and Schroeder can be dangerous on a given night. They’re not overly talented but they are well
coached and everyone knows their role. Brad
Stevens must be a great coach because while Boston has a lot of really nice
bench players they don’t have many clear-cut starters. Stevens gets the most out of his
players. I feel like too often NBA
coaches minimize the psychology of playing basketball whereby anyone who has
ever played pick up knows that when you play with a bunch of dudes who think
you can shoot and encourage you to do so you always shoot better. Confidence, even for people who are clearly
good at what they do, is so important.
Stevens seems to have the knack for putting his players in the right
positions and for getting the most out of their abilities. No one seems tight or confused as to what
their role is on the floor. Pretty
amazing for a coach so young. Bradley
and Smart can make it hell for opposing guards to get to where they want to
go. Whether Atlanta wins or loses they
are going to have some serious decisions to make in the off-season as to whom
to sign and for how much. There are many
different directions their organization could go. Boston should be in excellent shape going
forward. They’ve got a lot of picks but
until now Ainge has kept all his options open.
At some point they’ll have to decide how many picks to keep and whether
to make a big trade or to go young.
There’s no clear-cut path to success for Boston but at the same time
there are still many paths they could take to become successful and that, in of
itself, is exciting… -- For me this series is 50/50. I could see either team winning and if I had
to pick I’d probably go with Atlanta in 7)—
Miami vs.
Charlotte is, for me at least, another exciting match up I could see unfolding
in either direction. These teams are
pretty much evenly matched with perhaps a slight edge I’d give to Miami. I’m happy to watch both of them play
basketball. Kemba changed the fortunes
of this team when he learned to shoot 3s.
It has dramatically opened up their game. It’s crazy how something so simple can change
the fortunes of a franchise. That little
bit of extra space on the court has opened up the offensive game of the entire
team. Lynsanity has also continued to
improve steadily. He’s an excellent
bench player in the NBA who, when he’s hot, can be used in a bigger role along
side Walker. They have a plethora of big
men who do different things for them and they can give you a number of
different looks. Their concerted effort
to push the pace has made them much more exciting to watch. Miami is intriguing as well. They’ve figured out somewhat how to use
Whiteside’s constant threat of the lob and he’s developed just enough of a shot
to surprise you from time to time. It’ll
be interesting to see how much Wade has left in the tank. Their key has been unlocking the mystery of
Dragic. For a while there I was
wondering what happened to the dude that looked great in Phoenix. As it turns out Dragic is really only capable
of playing one way and Miami finally realized that. They’re playing much faster and letting him attack. I’m feeling like this series could go either
way but if I had to pick I’d go with Miami in seven. Riley did an amazing job rebuilding this team
on the fly. If they’d stayed healthy I
might have been able to envision them knocking off Cleveland but unfortunately
without a healthy Bosh for that outcome is not going to come to fruition…
Toronto vs.
Indiana should be fun to watch. Indiana
both surprised me and disappointed me at various parts of this season. There was a point I felt like they were
turning a corner and were going to be really dangerous but Paul tailed off a
bit and Miles Turner hit a bit of a rookie wall. They’re a good surprise but the surprise has
worn off a bit and now they’re just looking mediocre. This was a rebuilding year for them anyway so
they shouldn’t be too disappointed in losing this series. I can envision a scenario whereby Paul turns
it up and is the best player on the floor and all the pieces step up and this
series goes their way but Toronto is the better team and should finally win a
playoff series. It’s Toronto in the
playoffs though so you never know what might collapse. This year’s team feels a little better than
the past year’s. Maybe it’s just because
Loughery is in better shape and they know more what to expect. They’ve been playing with a bit more of an
edge. The future of this team is
definitely on the line though. There
will certainly be wholesale changes if they don’t beat Indiana and they will
consider a lot of options for sure if they don’t make it as far as the
conference finals. Indiana needs to take
their time and continue to rebuild in the off-season. It will be essential that they nail the draft
again as I don’t see many free agents lining up to play there. – I’m predicting Toronto in 6 or possibly 5
--
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