Friday, June 17, 2016

Thoughts about the finals before the pivotal game 7:

     First off, I thought this series was over after the first couple games.  Golden State just looked so much better then The Cavaliers.  It was hard to imagine how The Cavs could reconcile the failings of their roster: that they either had defensive players or offensive players on the court and other then Lebron they were rarely encompassed in the same individual.  When Cleveland won game 3 it was still hard to believe The Warriors wouldn’t come back and win the next game.  It seemed like everything turned after game four with the utterance of the word “bitch.”  Since then The Cavaliers have been a different team.  Just some quick thoughts after watching the last few games…

1. Career speaking Lebron James has got to shoot better.  He’s still completely amazing but the biggest change from the beginning of this series to now is that he is both taking open jumpers and making them.  The Warriors have been giving him such a big cushion and packing the paint that it gums up everything the Cavs try and do.  Earlier in the series (and this whole playoffs) Lebron was reluctant to shoot anything beyond a few feet from the basket.  It’s hard to run an offense this way unless he were to turn into a primarily back to the basket player.  By hitting some jumpers so much opens up for the Cavs and becomes easier on the offensive end.  Soon he will no longer be the most dominant physical presence on the court in every game and at that point he’s going to want a reliable jumper.  It just makes everything so much easier for him.  Not that my opinion matters but I strongly recommend he hires a great shot coach over the summer and that he spends less time working out and more time on honing his jumper.  The next few years of his career could go easy or hard for him and I think a reliable jumper will make all the difference…

2. Is something wrong with Curry?  That’s the question everyone is asking.  It’s easy to say he just doesn’t look right.  He’s definitely not moving jitterbug style on the court and his jumper looks way too dependent lately on his arms rather then his legs.  For someone so small and slight even the slightest physical slowing is going to make it hard to get off a shot.  So that would lead me to wonder if he is indeed healthy, but the truth is that no one on the court can be fully healthy at this point in the season.  They’re all tired.  Perhaps the defense in the playoffs is more physical and the traps are harder and defenses are better prepared and health is not really to blame for Curry’s fall off.  He’s still been a very good player in the finals but he has not been the transcendent force in this series or in fact for the whole playoffs that he was in the regular season.  Still, whether he is unstoppable or not, he forces defenses to scramble in ways that virtually no other player does on offense.  Even when he’s not scoring big he’s a huge factor as to the shots his team gets on offense.  I can’t help but feel like when he’s open he’s not guaranteed to make it the way I felt during the season.  Whether that’s due to health issues or because the Cavs are forcing him out of his comfort zone is a fine line that is hard to draw…

3. I’ve been saying for a while that sometimes dudes just miss and sometimes they hit shots and the difference is more often then not in there somewhere rather then in schemes and effort.  As Jeff Van Gundy says, “it’s a make or miss league,” and he’s right.  When shots fall everything becomes easier.  It’s definitely possible to take dudes out of their comfort zone and force more misses but bottom line, there are dudes that will hit shots anyway on any given night.  Irving looks awesome when he’s hitting tough shots and terrible when he’s not but I’m not sure anything is different in how he’s playing other then the ball going in or not.  It helps when he’s more decisive but either way he’s going to take tough shots.  Same goes for Curry or really anyone on the court.  We’ve seen a lot of back and forth blowouts in which a team that was destroyed one day comes back and annihilate the other team the next.  It’s not just a change in effort that differentiates these games or a change in scheme but simply that shots went in one night where they didn’t another night.  It sucks to think it’s that simple sometimes but I’m afraid it often is.  There are little things that occur to put players in and out of comfort along the way but they mean perhaps a little less then we think.

4. Harrison Barnes cannot hit a shot.  I’m not sure much more can be said to elaborate on this subject.  He’s getting plenty of open looks but they’re just not going in.  With every miss his paycheck for next season is most likely diminishing.  He also cannot guard Lebron.  It’s been a tough finals for him…

5. For offensive guards who play only one end has Irving just been much better then Curry?  He doesn’t involve the rest of his team the way Curry does so it’s not just about scoring and making shots.  Even when Curry doesn’t score he opens things up for his teammates in a way that Kyrie does not but bottom line Kyrie has been a much better scorer in the finals then Curry.  Moving forward Kyrie has got to learn to score without possessing the ball so long before his shot.  If he were able to be quicker and more decisive about his actions he’d be so much better.  Some of that is on the system whereby they pretty much give him the ball with no action and need him to get off a shot before the shot clock winds down.  He’s not so gifted in size or athleticism so he has to execute a number of moves to get the separation to get off his shot.  At some point they need to channel his skills into a system that better involves the team a la what Golden State has done with Curry.

6. Curry is committing some terrible fouls.  What exactly is he thinking?  Game 6 I couldn’t see even a questionable foul other then perhaps his fifth.  These are obvious and dumb fouls.  Perhaps his fifth foul was unwarranted but he reached twice in a row.  The first seemed like a foul and the second didn’t but it was close and it’s the kind of possession in a game where you just can’t take the chance when you’re in foul trouble.  Just play positional defense and don’t try for the steal.  It’s just not smart basketball.  It seems to me that the Cavs are being very physical with Curry and he’s trying to be physical back and he’s just not very good at it.  There’s an art to knowing when you can get away with hitting the offensive player and when you can’t.  Curry could have easily been called for a reach on Lebron James at the 7:35 mark at which point he would have fouled out.  This brings up another interesting point.  Lebron is a physical player and even more importantly a physical specimen.  It’s easier to ignore fouls against a dude that other people bounce off of.  Consequently I have rarely seen a team reach as much as the Warriors have against Lebron this series and commit so few fouls.  The Warriors are obviously good at it and they’ve watched a lot of film and are swiping down when Lebron gathers the ball but they’re still hard reaches and have rarely been called fouls in this series. 

7. Injuries.  For the first time in the last couple years the Warriors are dealing with poorly timed injuries.  Iguodala’s back injury was particularly devastating in game 6 especially since Barnes has been unable to match up against James and has played so poorly overall.  Bogut’s injury hurts as well as prolonged small ball is not nearly as effective when it’s not a change of pace.  Golden State misses Bogut’s rim protection.  These kinds of injuries are what every team deals with and it’s important to keep in mind how much luck is involved in winning it all.  The owners of Golden State can praise themselves all they want for their genius but a large part of winning is the luck of being healthy at the right time.  You can help that luck by resting your players and utilizing your bench as the Warriors have done but it’s still luck.

8. James expends so much energy on both ends of the court.  It’s not easy to both play great offense and great defense and be the focal point of everything your team does on offense.  There are a few great two-way players but they don’t shoulder the offensive load generally that Lebron does.  Clay Thompson for instance plays hard on both ends but he rarely plays as many minutes as James and the Golden State offense isn’t dependent on him being involved in every action.  He can get moments of rest here and there on the court when he needs them.  For James, he only rests when Kyrie is cooking and chooses to go one on one.

9. The Warriors may yet win this series but part of their problem has been that they simply do not fear the Cavaliers at all.  Consequently I think they have not taken them very seriously and their effort has not been as good as it could have been.  Without the proper respect of your opponent it can be easy to avoid the desperation it takes to win these kinds of ballgames.  The Cavs are not as talented as Golden State but they are
Desperate to win… and they’ve got Lebron James.  It’s been clear from quotes and body language both before and after the Draymond confrontation that the Warriors do not fear James’ abilities.  That’s problematic.  He’s still the best player on the court in every game and when he hits shots it’s going to be very difficult to beat him.  Golden State has the attitude that they just play their game and they can’t be beat.  In the end they may be right but for a team that freaks out every time they are slighted their arrogance towards other good players is palpable.  Eventually you anger the wrong dude and you miss a few shots and you pay for it.  Draymond plays hard and I respect him for that but he does and says shit that is just crazy.  Screaming in Steven Adam’s face after hitting a shot is all well and good (actually it’s super annoying) but doing the same thing to Lebron is just not smart.  One guy won’t do much to shut you up, the other just might.

10. The last point brings me here: I cannot believe the leeway the refs give to Green.  He complains so vociferously and so emphatically after every call.  He reached twice on Lebron towards the end of the game 6, clearly two fouls in a row, and then freaked out and screamed in the refs face when it was correctly whistled a foul.  How does he not get a technical for this?  I read that at one point during the playoffs DeMarcus Cousins was incredulous that Green didn’t get called for more technicals.  I’m sure he’s watching Golden State and thinking I don’t complain any more then Draymond.  Why is he allowed to get away with it and I am not (Note that I am arguing neither one should be allowed to get away with it). 

11. My favorite thing the Cavs have done in this series is to relentlessly pick on Curry's defense.  The Cavs have treated Curry like the Warriors have treated Love when he's on the court.  Involve him in every play until his defense crumbles.  It's a great old school strategy that both wears Curry down and puts some doubts in his mind.  No one likes knowing that the other team thinks their defense is so terrible that any matchup is a mismatch...


12. On to game 7.  I’m leaning towards the Warriors taking it but for the first time this season the Cavs have made me doubt that Golden State will win it all.  My gut instinct is that the Cavs have put doubt into the Warriors and that they’ll win but I’m still picking Golden State because I still cannot wrap my mind around how the Thunder lost to them.  In that series as well it just seemed like the Thunder were clearly better and had Golden State on the ropes and yet the Warriors pulled out the series.  So until someone actually beats them I’m just going to assume they’re going to win.  I like both teams more or less but for the first time this playoffs I’m rooting hard for the Cavs to pull it out.  Cleveland needs this way more then Silicon Valley needs this…