Monday, November 30, 2015

Golden State Warriors vs. Utah Jazz:

     That was a great game.  The Jazz played it perfect.  Rudy Gobert dominated on defense and his cuts to the basket opened up all kinds of action for the Jazz on offense.  Favors played really well and hit all his free throws (he’s a 66% free throw shooter normally) going 5 for 5 from the line with a number of those in crunch time.  Hayward played like an all-star.  Alec Burks shot 8 for 15 from the floor.  Utah did everything right.  They slowed the game down and played big.  They took the lead late and put pressure on the Warriors.  And yet Curry pulled the trigger on a couple of big 3s and that was the game:

Golden State didn’t play particularly well but they did what they had to and their best player hit two demoralizing shots against good defense and that was it.  The streak continues...

Thanksgiving Weekend...

--Cleveland against Charlotte
Cleveland has Mo Williams, Matthew Dellavedova, Richard Jefferson and James Jones on the court at the same time.  I know Cleveland has a lot of injuries but that’s a problem. Lebron can be slow to set up the offense at times.  He gets a little enamored with pounding the rock.  In one sequence he runs pick and roll with Tristan Thompson and there’s nothing there. J.R. Smith gets the ball with 5 seconds left on the shot clock.  That’s just terrible offense unless your goal is to have Smith chuck up something ugly.  Also, in crunch time of this game Jefferson is playing over love.  That doesn’t make much sense unless Love is injured (he wasn’t).  Cleveland seems like they’re squeaking by but their point differential is 3rd in the league at 7 and they’ve already dealt with tons of injuries.  If they can ever get healthy they’ll cruise easily through the east.  It’s ugly Lebron dominant basketball but it’s effective.  Especially given the weakness of the east. 

--What’s up with certain teams just getting blown out when they lose.  Milwaukee, Houston, and Washington are the biggest culprits.  These three teams can look good but then they just get crushed on some nights.  Can we at least lose by under ten points people.  The following was as of Friday night…
  Milwaukee:  Of 9 losses, 7 are by more than 10 points and 4 by more than 19 and 3 by more than 25 (of those last 3 -- one by 25, another by 29 and another by 37. Average margin of loss = just under 18 points
  Washington: average loss = just under 14.  At what point do they consider moving on from Randy Wittman?  
  Houston:  First of all, they’re just 5 and 10 which is totally absurd.  Their average margin of loss just under 18 which is also absurd…
   I can’t comprehend how these 3 teams can lose games like this.  They’ve all got too much talent to be this bad on any given night.  Their average margin of loss leads me to believe that at least some of their problems are mental.  When things don’t go well they just cave.

--San Antonio does not look nearly as dominant as Golden State but I like how they’re developing.  They’re leading the league in opponents points per game at 90.5 over two points better than second place Miami.  Classic spurs that at 13 and 3 they’ve got the second best record in the NBA and no one cares.  They’re second in point differential to Golden state at 8.9 (Golden State = 15.6).  Their pace is much slower than Golden State’s so it may not be as great a statistical gap between the two as it seems.  The positives are that Aldridge has not come even close to playing as well as he can.  He’s still figuring out where his shots are going to come from.  He also doesn’t seem in the least bothered by a lower scoring average which makes him very Spurs-ian.  Kawhi looks great.  He’s really turning into a star on offense as well as defense.  The only negative is that the old core has definitely aged.  Parker has looked a step slower, but he’s gradually getting in better shape.  Duncan has stepped back but he also looks like he’s coasting through this part of the season.  He still seems ageless at certain points.  I still think he has some big time basketball left in his system.  I think there’s more depth on the team than people think.  Jonathon Simmons has the potential to be the next big Spurs reclamation project.  He’s got size and is very athletic and plays with a great motor.  Once the Spurs coaching staff puts the Kawhi treatment on him I wouldn’t be surprised if he turns into another steal.  The Spurs are clearly looking long term with this season, yet they’re still winning which bodes very well for them and poorly for the rest of the league. 
     Last season San Antonio scored 103.2 ppg and gave up 97 ppg.  This season they’re scoring 99.4ppg and giving up 89.7ppg.  In their championship season they scored 105.4ppg and gave up 97.6ppg.  That season the Spurs basically laid the ground work for what Golden State is doing today.  Pop is doing the smart thing.  GS is unique and you’re not going to beat them doing what they do.  The hope is to buck the trend and go big and play great defense and slow the pace down.  Everyone else in the league is trying to copy Golden State but they are just not taking into account that the Warriors have historically unique personnel.  I just don’t see anyone beating the Warriors at their game.  Not that The Spurs would gear everything towards GS but they’re desperate to win one more for Duncan without giving up their future and they’re in a unique position to achieve both goals at the same time.  Their only chance of winning against Golden state is to pound them inside and make them work on offense.  Right now they’re the only threat out there to Golden State down the line excepting perhaps whatever the Cavs become when or if they’re healthy.

--Isn’t Jahlil Okafor 19 years old?  How exactly was he in that nightclub in Boston the other night?  He’s clearly intoxicated in the video of the fight he got in (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAmCcvHHY8M).  I don’t think the police should necessarily crack down on him for this altercation (he probably should have been arrested that night) but they might wanna consider raiding that nightclub…

--The Rockets are so terrible that they gave up 114 points to Philadelphia and needed 50 from James Harden in order to squeak out a 2 point win on their home court.  That’s a season high in points for Philadelphia beating their previous mark by 11.  The 76ers are last in the league at 89.8 points per game.  That is not good.  On the plus side Houston seems to be playing Ty Lawson less.  He only played 16 minutes to Patrick Beverley’s 32 minutes.  This quote says it all for me from J.B. Bickerstaff:
    
"In past situations this year, we didn't handle those situations well," Rockets coach J.B. Bickerstaff said. "There's a growing belief in that locker room that they can do the things needed to win."

Ummm… Philadelphia was 0 and 16 before this game.  Anything less than a blowout does not constitute a growing belief that you’re doing the things needed to win.  On Sunday the Rockets squeaked past the Knicks who somehow scored 111 points without Carmelo Anthony.  That’s the team 28th in the league for points per game scoring 15 points above their average minus by far their best offensive player.  Bickerstaff had another stupid sounding quote afterwards:

"It was a lesson in perseverance," said interim coach J.B. Bickerstaff. "We got down, but we didn't give in. It is a credit to our guys' mental toughness and fortitude."

Bickerstaff should have been ripping into his team for some horrible efforts against sub par opponents.  The following clip demonstrates some of the crappiest defense I've ever seen.  James Harden makes absolutely no effort whatsoever to play any defense.  He does take time to yell at a teammate though:

There are bad wins and good losses and for the Rockets that’s definitely two bad wins in one weekend.  As far as the Knicks go, Porzingis went for 20 and 10 with 8 for 13 shooting…

--Indiana knocked off Chicago and looked like the better team doing it and Paul George got the best of Jimmy Butler.  I’ve previously written all about this but I’m really impressed by Indiana and I can’t believe I’m saying this but right now they’re legitimately top 5 in the East…

--It honestly perplexes me that Mark Gasol cannot average 20 points a game.  I’m sorry but 15.2 points and 6.9 rebounds per game is just not going to cut it.  He is way too talented.  He’s big and moves well and has a nice touch and has good post moves.  What am I missing?  He should be dominating.  If I were his coach I’d be screaming at him constantly to take more shots.  He gets off just under 12 attempts a game.  Aggression is a talent and perhaps he just doesn’t have it.  If I were his coach there would be a rule that he does not get on the team bus unless he gets 20 shots up in the game.  On Sunday he once again only got up 8 shots making 4.  At least he grabbed 12 rebounds in his 39 minutes.  I don’t know if this is in his head or whether it falls on the coaching but it seems a criminal waste of talent…

--Stephen Curry against Phoenix:  30 minutes and 39 seconds.  11 for 20 from the floor.  10 for 11 from the line.  9 for 16 from 3.  6 rebounds and 8 assists.  Totally insane.  He had 6 turnovers so at least he’s vaguely human….

--Anthony Davis went down from injury yet again.  How bad was the Jrue Holiday deal for them.  I just don’t see this team ever getting good.  What a waste…

--Boston vs. Orlando:
     Evan Fournier has outplayed Victor Oladipo this year and gotten himself into the starting lineup.  That’s gotta be killing Oladipo.  Can you believe that Evan Fournier is averaging 17.7 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game this season?  I can’t.  He’s shooting 44.6% FG and 40.2% from 3.  The former is not bad for a shooting guard and the latter is very impressive.  He definitely worked on his game over the summer because I would have written those numbers off as impossible last year (“not gonna happen,” as Jalen Rose would say).   He’s not very fast but he makes up for it by having good size and strength for a 2 guard. 
     I had a minor Thanksgiving disagreement with my brother over Orlando.  He thinks they’re uninteresting and that they do not have much talent on their team.  I disagreed. Elfrid Payton is intriguing.  He definitely has the point guard gene (he feels comfortable running a team and looking to get other players involved) and he’s got good size and can play defense.  He’s effective even though he is completely lacking a serviceable jump shot.  If he ever gets that he could be very good.  Vucevic is very good offensively.  He can shoot and has good post moves and he can rebound well.  He doesn’t have a whole lot else at this point but he could learn to play D and to pass serviceably.  Tobias Harris has potential as an all around type scorer with the size and strength to play bigger in a small ball line up.  Channing Frye was really good just a few years ago.  Oladipo plays hard and has loads of talent even if he’s erratic at times.  Coming off the bench gives him a chance to go full on offensive when he’s out there.  I’m not sure that’s a great thing.  He has a tendency to chuck a bit and what’s holding him back is knowing when to go for it and when to chill.  Somewhere in there though is a very good two way NBA player.  One very big positive for having Oladipo coming off the bench is that he keeps Napier from being on the court.  That’s a good thing.  Oladipo managed to rack up 19 points, 8 rebounds and 6 assists in his 30 minutes against Boston on Sunday.  It’s the latter that impresses me in this role.  Scott Skiles will make some sort of a team out of these disparate elements.  Then he’ll yell at them too much and everyone will quickly become tired of him and another coach will take over.  Somewhere before, during, or after this process they’ll become a solid .500 team (I think they’re already there).  Oh and by the way, to my brother who scoffed at the idea that Aaron Gordon was an intriguing play I submit this:
And This:


Gordon is tall and fast and has a bounce to his step.  The offensive skills are clearly in there somewhere.  At some point his brain will catch up to his body and he’s going to be a good player that can easily play the small ball towards which the league is heading.  He’s got the length to bother bigger players and the quickness to keep up with guards.
As a team Orlando is just above .500 and has a slightly positive point differential at +.8.  That’s not bad considering where they’ve been the last few years…
    I can’t figure out what to think of Boston.  Stevens is a nice coach and he has them playing a fun style with a sense of over all purpose, but they are a team full of nice role players.  I don’t see any room for individual players to progress much beyond where they are (possibly excepting Marcus Smart).  They’ve got a ton of draft picks coming up thanks to the woeful nets so perhaps they’re actually positioned quite well for the future.  In 2016 alone they’ve got 4 first round picks potentially.  The Nets pick will obviously be good as they’re probably the 2nd worse team in the league.  They’ve got their own pick and a top 7 protected pick from Dallas which surprisingly they’ll most likely be getting as Dallas is much better than expected.  Lastly, they’ve got a pick from Minnesota that is top 12 protected.  Most likely they won’t get that, but Minnesota does seem determined to win as much as possible and they’re reasonably talented so you never know.  In 2017 Boston can swap picks with the nets.  The Nets are going to be very bad once again so that could be another lottery pick.  They also get a top 11 protected pick from Memphis.  In 2018 they have their own pick and Brooklyn’s pick unprotected.  That’s crazy.  All they need to do is hit on a few of these picks and place a couple of top talent kids onto this team and they’ve got something.  There are also plenty of assets on the team now to make trades but not really the kinds of assets that get you anything much in particular unless you start throwing in some of these picks.  All in all, that’s pretty crazy, but it makes me interested in Boston this year only in so far as which players on their roster are worth keeping around.  All those draft picks will take up a significant number of the present roster spots unless Ainge can pull the trigger on a big trade. 

--Knicks vs. Rockets
     Unfortunately, due to illness, Carmelo Anthony was unable to audition for one of the few teams in the league with the potential desire to trade for him and which also has the assets to get it done.  Houston is closing in on desperate and they have players that Phil Jackson could consider.  They don’t have a draft pick next year, but a bunch of players plus their 2017 draft pick might be intriguing to Phil Jackson.  Personally I’d be vaguely interested in Clint Capela and I really like Donatas Montiejunas and Terrence Jones is ok.  Everything else doesn’t really interest me so perhaps it would take 2 future first round picks.  Other than Houston there’s not a large market out there for Carmelo among teams that have the players and cap space and picks to get the job done.  If I had to guess I’d guess that the Knicks keep Carmelo, but I’d feel much better with that prediction if they still had their draft pick for next year.  As it stands keeping Carmelo makes sense if you’re thinking championship and I don’t quite see how that happens without another good draft pick next year.  I like Porzingis but he’s not going to be enough and I don’t think there’s a realistic free agent out there that is going to make this team championship ready in the next couple years.  I could be wrong but it’s got to be tempting to get what you can for Carmelo now while he’s still worth something.  I like his game and I think he can be among your top two guys on a championship team but I can’t see how the Knicks get there in the next couple years before he starts to decline.  He can shoot so his game might age well but he is also kind of in between a small forward and a power forward and that disparity is trouble as you get older, weaker, and slower.  He’s already not a good defender as he used to be and in a few years he’s going to boarder on bad.

--Somehow the more competitive Philly’s games get the more depressing it is that they’re just not good enough to win.  Eventually they’ll pull it off but if I were a fan I’d be pissed.  I know they want to have the worst record but they could still achieve that and be slightly more watchable.  Which is going to happen first: will Philadelphia win a game or will Golden State lose a game?  Philly has a few vaguely winnable games coming up: Dec 1 against the Lakers and Dec 2nd against the Knicks and Dec 5th against Denver and Dec 10th against Brooklyn.  Golden State has a tough one against Utah next but beyond that they might make it to Christmas against Cleveland.  The real answer is who fucking cares whether Philadelphia wins a game.  We should be watching every Golden State game and completely ignoring anything that Philadelphia does until they decide to join the NBA again and henceforth I will do just that…

--Raptors vs. Suns
    The Raptors lost a close one but they’d won 4 in a row before that and the Suns are 6 and 0 against teams when they’ve played the night before and it took 6 for 7 from 3 for Teletovic to get it done.  There are good losses and bad losses and that’s definitely not a bad loss Toronto…

--Lastly, can anyone explain to me the point of The Lakers playing World Peace for 27 minutes in a game?  Surely you can find some minutes for someone young.  It's not like they're actually expecting to win games at this point and even if they were World Peace would not be the answer.  Byron Scott is a confusing man.  Just throw in the towel and play anyone below the age of 30 please.  Not that it really matters.  The only relevance of The Lakers at this point is if you're nostalgic for Kobe's last hurrah.  I'm not particularly so like with the 76ers this may be the last time I mention this team this year...

Thursday, November 26, 2015

Paul George is a pretty good basketball player...

Paul George:

25.9 points. 45.8% fg 45.7% 3pt
8.4 rebounds
4.8 assists

     Paul George is quietly looking like one of the best players in the NBA right now.  His initial start to the season was a little rough but after the first two games he has clearly hit a comfort zone.  His shooting looks fantastic.  Last night in Washington he shot 14 for 19 from the field and 7 of 8 from three and 5 for 6 from the line for 40 points in total.  Those are Stephen Curry type numbers.  But that game was not an anomaly.  If you take away the first two games of the season when he was getting readjusted to playing NBA basketball again his percentages look even better.  Minus the first two games he is just under 50% overall from the field and 50% exactly from 3 point land.  His ball handling looks vastly improved as well and he’s looking to make plays for other people much more than he has in the past. His defense has always been his calling card and he is still excellent on that end although he has a tendency to gamble too much.  There are very few players right now I’d rather have on my team than Paul George. 

     The Pacers in general have impressed me.  They have definitely completely reinvented what they are trying to do out on the court.  They got rid of Roy Hibbert in the off season and have clearly made a concerted effort to pick up the pace.  They’re shooting way more 3s overall (they’re 3rd in the league from 3pt land trailing only Golden State and Phoenix) and C.J. Miles (15.9 on 46% fg and 45.9% 3s) has clearly made a concerted effort to work on his shooting in the off season.  There’s a bit too much Jordan Hill and Ian Manhinmi in general for my taste but both of those guys have played better than I would have expected.  Frank Vogel is clearly a good coach and has adapted well to a complete overhaul of their playing style.  Indiana is full of solid NBA players but lacking in stars.  George Hill is a solid player who shoots very well and can play defense.  Monta Ellis has his flaws but he’s a professional scorer and Rodney Stuckey has a tough aggressive game.  Chase Budinger, when healthy, has always been an effective scorer and Miles Turner looks like he may develop into something at some point.  But it all comes back around to George, the lone star on this team.  At 9 and 5 Indiana is currently tied for the 3rd best record in the eastern conference.  They’ve clearly committed to pushing the pace.  It’s easy to claim you’re going to play faster but that actually takes work and a conditioning and many teams only give the idea of fast breaking lip service.  Frankly, I’m really surprised that Indiana is this good.  Glancing at their roster before the season I wrote them off but it’s easy to forget how good Paul George is and if he continues to play like this Indiana will really sneak on up on some people this season. 

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Links to Articles as of November 24th

Any Zach Lowe article is worth reading.  I'm fascinated by this subject.  I tend to think there are unique factors for Golden State and that if the right team goes in the opposite direction they could be successful.

Paul Flannery and Tom Ziller (I like it when these two go  back and forth):

Tom Ziller on Warriors small ball lineup.  This is basically what has just about every team scrambling to go small. 

I’ve been saying this for a while now…

ya can’t fire the players so I guess the coach had to go…

Monday, November 23, 2015

Random observations weekend of November 21st & 22nd

Basketball is fascinating to me.  You can break stuff down to numbers but sometimes there are just indefinable tangibles that defy explanation.  The Timberwolves are so much better with Rubio despite all his offensive flaws.  He just knows how to run a team and it settles everyone down and gets them into their sets.  They’re 5-4 with him this season and 0-4 without him in the line up.  He’s an extremely under rated defender.  The Timberwolves need to cut down on their veteran players though.  I understand they are trying to make the playoffs but there is too much Martin and Prince on the court.  They need to be playing young guys more and assessing what they have rather than thinking about the playoffs.  In fact, one more year of drafting someone good and they could be set for the next decade.  They need to trade some of these veterans in order to take a step forward…

The Rockets just look like they’re barely trying.  I do think their talent is a bit over rated and that Kevin McHale might have done a better job last season than he was given credit for especially considering how many injuries they had.  It’s tough when James Harden is the alpha on your team.  He just has so many lazy possessions both on offense and defense.  He loses his man regularly and settles for way too many forced 3 pointers.  It’s strange to fire a successful coach 11 games into the season even considering the number of terrible collapses they’ve suffered already.  What’s the point in firing him though without a replacement lined up?  J.B. Bickerstaff is Kevin McHale’s guy and he is not going to do anything different.  The game plan is going to be exactly the same.  I can’t really see the advantage in firing McHale other than sending a message to your players that they need to try harder.  I just don’t see Bickerstaff getting any more out of these guys than McHale did.  Daryl Morey is being a bit delusional if he thinks this is a championship team and if he thinks Bickerstaff is the man to bring him a championship.  I really think Harden and the Rockets are suffering from the curse of the Kardashians.  Harden has taken such a big step back so far this year…

I’m really impressed with what Rick Carlyle is doing with the Mavericks.  That guy can coach his ass off.  It makes me a bit sad that DeAndre Jordan didn’t follow through and go to Dallas.  They might have actually been contenders this year.  Carlyle is so good that JaVale McGee got into his first game of the year and looked like a professional basketball player.  He was trying and actually looked like he was in the right spots and knew what he was doing.  Crazy.  In just under 11 minutes he had 8 points and 6 rebounds on 80% shooting.  I get the feeling DeAndre just wasn’t ready for the pressure of a big contract in a new place.  There would have been expectations.  Having stayed in LA he can coast along playing defense and getting rebounds and shooting exclusively dunks off lobs.  Everyone is so happy that he stayed that he really isn’t expected to improve much.  Against Phoenix with Paul and Griffin out DeAndre could only muster 11 and 9 with a -27 +/-.  That was his opportunity to post up and take a bunch of shots and he just couldn’t do it.  I don’t know if it’s his inability to demand the ball or his teammates unwillingness to pass to him but I just don’t get it.  He just doesn’t seem too concerned about having a bigger role.  Dirk Nowitzki is still a game-changing player.  His shooting this season has been fantastic.  I’m noticing he added some arc to his shot which makes it even harder to block.  That’s a smart move for an older player who is getting absurdly slow.  The more arc the less separation you need to get the shot off especially when you’re 7 feet tall. 

Denver’s Malone seems like a pretty good coach.  Why did Sacramento fire him?  Denver doesn’t have a ton of talent to put out there but they try hard and vaguely have a game plan.  My biggest problem with Malone is that he’s been playing way too much J.J. Hickson.  Against the Warriors though he finally put Hickson on the bench for all but 9 minutes.  That’s 9 minutes too much as far as I’m concerned but it’s a start.  For Denver, unless they think it’ll lead to improving a trade asset there’s just no reason to play older players.  There is zero chance they’re going to make the playoffs.  Side note: Ty Lawson talked a lot of trash before the season about how Stephen Curry didn’t have to work hard against any point guards in the playoffs last season.  They flashed a statistic during this game that Curry has shot 59% FG and 72% on 3s for his career against Denver in 21 games.  If true that does not reflect very well on Ty Lawson.  Perhaps he should think about keeping his mouth shut…