So I’ve been in
music recording mode the past couple of weeks down in New Orleans (and then running around for the holidays), which only
partly explains my lack of recent posts.
One factor, of course, is that no one is paying me to write these and
most likely no one is actually reading them so it’s more of an exercise in fun
and love of basketball than it would otherwise be. Another factor is that this is generally the
least exciting or interesting time of the NBA season as far as I’m concerned. Out of the gates anything is possible and
it’s fun to see and to predict what has changed from the previous season. How teams reinvent themselves and improve or
decline is new and exciting but there’s not much data under the belt to confirm
or deny these reactions. Gradually, as
teams chug through the grind of the season there is more data that allows one
to draw more realistic conclusions. In
the beginning it’s all an exciting guessing game. We are at the strange point in the season
where the excitement of predicting what trends will continue is over as facts
accrue but the season is still young enough that the sample size isn’t great
enough to support full blown analysis.
Having said that, I’m going to draw what conclusions I can so far in
this season and discuss the topics that I have found most interesting thus far…
Is this swiftly
becoming a two-team league? I hope the
answer to this question is not yes even though these two teams just happen to
be my favorites to watch. Part of the
problem has been that not only are Golden State and San Antonio looking really
good, but the teams that were supposed to rival them for championship
contention are all playing much worse than expected. In the West the big disappointments thus far
are Houston, The Clippers, and Memphis.
Houston has some serious mental problems. Harden has regressed this season. He’s just become so inefficient and he’s
stopped caring again on defense. Beyond
that they just don’t have enough players that you can count on
consistently. Los Angeles is a dangerous
team but their bench is so terrible. On
paper they looked to be much improved this season but it just hasn’t panned
out. Doc Rivers is getting nothing out
of anyone beyond the starting 4. It’s
hard to see a team winning it all without an actual 5 players you want on the
court at the end of a game. Memphis
still can’t shoot and now they can’t play defense as well. The only team not named San Antonio or Golden
State I can see getting to the finals in the West is Oklahoma City. They’re not there yet but the duo of
Westbrook and Durant is just so dangerous.
I’m skeptical of them because they too just don’t know who to put on the
court in crunch time.
The East is full
of pretty good teams that just don’t have what it takes to win it all. The only team that has even a remote to stop
Cleveland from getting to the finals is Chicago. They’re a bit of a mess but the potential is
there. Miami doesn’t have enough bodies. They flash some potential but I just don’t
think Dragic is that good and he’s certainly not very compatible with the rest
of the team. Toronto is too schizophrenic. Everyone else is a year or two away at
least.
Basketball is a game of ebbs and flows and I’m
sensing that the magic of the Warriors is diminishing. They’ve gone from historic to very good. Curry isn’t dominating the way he did in the
beginning of the season. Defenders are
muscling him and stealing the ball.
Right before Christmas the Warriors played the Jazz and Trey Burke stole
the ball from Curry straight up a couple of times. Burke is not a powerhouse defender and
earlier in the year when Curry was on his hot streak this would not have
happened but Curry has cooled down and he’s always been prone to turnovers. Sometimes a winning streak like the Warriors
had takes more energy than you’d think and sometimes streaky players just get
extra hot, but either way the Warriors are not the same team as they were in
the beginning of the year. That’s not to
say they won’t regain their form but for now they look really good but mortal. Their offense is not flowing freely and the
ball is sticking. Most importantly
they’re missing some shots. They look
beatable. Contain Curry and punish them
inside. It’s a formula that the Spurs,
who currently look like the best-oiled machine in the league, look capable of
bringing to fruition. Ironically it’s
the Warrior’s defense that is winning them games at this stage more so than
their offense. On a side note, let’s
stop with the Curry vs. Michael Jordan talk.
Yes, for the first 20 games or so he played historically good ball but
that kind of sample size only counts as a hot streak. Sustainability is what makes the greatest
players who they are and what separates them from other very good players. On any given night a large number of NBA
players are capable of getting hot and looking amazing, but a very select few
can do so consistently. Twenty or so
games is an amazing hot streak but going out on an off night in the middle of
the season when you and your team are tired is hard work and few players are
historically capable of such feats of consistency. 5 of 14 from the field and 2 for 8 from 3
against Trey Burke’s defense does not make me fear for Jordan’s title as GOAT. You can see Curry’s body breaking down a bit
at this point in the season. Curry has
been out with a calf injury and in his absence the Warriors seem quite mortal. It makes for a better to story to extrapolate
what happens if the Warriors continue to dominate but let us not forget that
the 2007/8 Rockets won 22 games in a row.
Theirs was far from a historic roster.
Part of Golden State’s appearance of mortality is that certain matchups
are not great for them and the Jazz fall under this category but I would worry
about this if I were them as San Antonio is a much better version of the
Jazz. Also, they’ve not looked great
lately against some pretty mediocre to bad opponents. The Celtics should have beaten them, as
should have the Nets twice. The 12 and
18 Milwaukee Bucks looked like a great team when they played Golden State. No team is going to dominate an entire season
and even more so look dominant an entire season but there are trends now that
worry me a bit. Having said that Golden
State continues to win anyway and that’s what great teams do.
San Antonio on
the other hand has been playing the long game to perfection. Parker is in better shape, Aldridge is just
starting to figure things out in a new system, and David West is killing it
coming off the bench. Danny Green is
only now starting to shoot well and Patty Mills hasn’t yet found his form and
they’re killing teams. Kawhi is
completely awesome. He’s incredibly
efficient with his shooting and can get to whatever and wherever he wants. His defense is suffocating. I worry about the old folks getting
overwhelmed by a team like Oklahoma City but I see them and Golden State as
neck and neck right now and I just feel like it’s a favorable matchup for San
Antonio. The Spurs can go big and pound
Golden State or they can go small and Kawhi will have no problems sticking with
Green at the 4. They’re my two favorite
teams but I sure hope this season isn’t heading towards just waiting from now
until these two teams clash in the Western Conference finals to decide who wins
the championship.
-- Just watched Orlando against the Hawks. Some day soon Orlando is going to be good but
my biggest take away from that game was watching Victor Oladipo help off of
Kyle Korver multiple times. What the
hell was he thinking? When you play the
Hawks you stay with Korver at all times.
You can’t sag into the lane.
Oladipo’s defensive lapses were inexcusable. I’m guessing Skyles has some emphatic words
for him after the game. Orlando has
really turned it around this year and I like where their team is going but
they’ve still got a ways to go…
-- Cleveland looks like they’ll take the east pretty easily
to me. Such is the greatness of Lebron
though that if he were back on Miami they would be the favorite to win it this
year. The core of Wade, Bosh, Whiteside
and Lebron would be devastating. Miami
is in serious long term trouble though.
I’m not sure they can keep Whiteside and they shelled out way too much
for Dragic. He’s just not nearly worth
the money they gave him.
-- I know I said no 76er comments but the Colangelo hiring
felt like the other owners finally rebelling.
I couldn’t believe that from a business standpoint all these rich folks
had kept quiet about a franchise that was causing them to lose money. By the way, citing Kendal Marshall as super
important to their team’s plans and saying that his surgery was a huge set back
is the biggest indictment of the 76ers to date.
Poor Brett Brown. Now he’s got D’Antoni
breathing down his neck and it’s unfair because no coach on earth could have
wrung anymore wins from this pile of crap than he has. You can’t coach offense when nobody knows how
to score. It’s pointless.
-- Garnett is the perfect veteran for Towns and
Wiggins. They’re both almost too
mellow. He pumps them up and gets them
to play harder and assert their talent. Minnesota
still doesn’t have the fire to be consistent but when they dig in there’s a
team in there somewhere. At this point
they just don’t know when to pass and when to shoot. Guys force things all the time and I’m not
sure how much of an actual offense they’re running. I’ve never been a huge fan of Sam
Mitchell. Seems like a nice guy
though. How about you play Towns some
more and force-feed him the ball some more?
He should be getting more shot attempts.
I think if he leads the team in shots attempts they’ll have a much
better chance of winning. As it is this
team is all potential and no reality.
I’d say fire Mitchel but riding this year out and losing a bunch of
games in order to get one more high draft pick is actually a good idea. They’re a fun bad which is a good place to
be. It’s a pleasure watching this team
lose. Next year they need to make a leap
though and should high a coach capable of making this team better.
-- Is Anthony Davis the most over rated player in the
NBA? I’m not saying he’s not great but
pre-season hype was leaning towards him being the best player in the
league. I know they’ve had a lot of
injuries but could you imagine Lebron James losing this many games? I can’t.
-- And finally, Matt Barnes is out of his freaking
mind. If you haven’t followed his latest
New Year’s tweet it’s pretty hilarious.
Some people should not be using social media…
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