The Basketball end of times...

     Everybody loves drama.  We are all drawn to the doomsday scenario.  Every summer blockbuster movie needs to up the stakes until the destruction of the world is not only constantly threatened but often partially initiated.  The Durant signing seems to have fed into the tragic horror of most sports fans.  Let’s skip the season!  The system is broken and we need a hard cap and we need to eliminate max salaries!  How can the league survive with just a few super teams!  What’s the point of watching basketball or even bothering to play out the season!  Now there absolutely will have to be a lockout!  I probably should have written all those statements in capitals as well as with exclamation points.

     It would probably be wise for everyone to wake up today, the day after 4^th of July, and take some long, slow, deep breaths and chill the fuck out.  I’ll admit that my initial reaction bordered a bit on sadness.  Golden State will be a lot of fun next year but I had kind of enjoyed briefly wondering who might win the NBA championship next year.  Strangely, if I were a betting man, I would have put my money on Oklahoma City.  I thought they were the best team in the playoffs.  Their regular season wasn’t great but I thought Steven Adams made a huge leap and the whole team found an identity and there was really no excuse for losing 3 in a row to what appeared to be an inferior Golden State team.  Two historic level collapses, first by the Thunder and then by Golden State themselves had to occur in order to get where we are today on July 5^th.  Had The Thunder closed out their series against Golden State, had Klay Thompson not had one of the greatest shooting nights in NBA history in game 6, the Thunder would have made it to the NBA finals and would probably have been favorites to win.  Had they won last year would Durant be on The Warriors today?  Similarly, had Draymond not lost his mind and punched LeBron in the nuts and had Curry not forgotten that it’s possible to drive past Kevin Love the Warriors would probably not have lost to the Cavs in one of the historically shocking finals collapses ever and Durant would probably not have considered joining the reining 2 time NBA champs.  The unprecedented rise in cap money also had to happen just as one of the very best players in the game became a free agent in a year when the other free agents were frankly not top echelon players.  I’m trying to make the point here that a lot of variables had to unfold in very specific ways for Durant to end up on Golden State. 

     I’m going to try and avoid doing too much arm chair psychology concerning Durant’s state of mind, but I think clearly, had he really enjoyed playing with Russell Westbrook, he would not have left Oklahoma City.  I’m not saying they do not like each other and all that kind of stuff.  I’m simply saying that if he wanted his career to stay linked with Westbrook why would he leave.  OKC would probably have had just as good odds of winning it all next year as Golden State had he stayed.  On some level, style of basketball must have meant something to Durant.  It doesn’t hurt that Durant leaving both makes Golden State better but also greatly diminishes their biggest rival (I just don’t think they fear San Antonio the same way they did OKC).  Having said all that perhaps Durant simply didn’t like the schools in his school district or he just wanted to be on the west coast.  There are a million factors going into where each one of us considers living.

     For me what is so fascinating is how insane it is that Cleveland won the NBA championship.  LeBron seemed to will the Cavs to the finish line.  I did not think it was possible for any team in the NBA to beat Golden State three times in a row.  Yes, Draymond had to get suspended and Bogut hurt and Iguodala hurt (and possibly Curry was hurt as well) but still, I didn’t see the Cavs shutting down Golden State’s offense.  LeBron proved he is far and away the best player on the planet in just about every facet of the game (except shooting.  He better get a shooting coach before his body deteriorates if he wants his career to last beyond the point at which he is the most physically dominant basketball player in the world).  If Lebron weren’t so good Durant would probably still be on OKC, or maybe not.  The important thing to remember here is these are very young men playing a game and we should all relax a bit.  It seems like Golden State is going to win it all next year but then again it seemed that way last year as well.  You never know.  Sports are unpredictable and life can still be entertaining even if the existence of the world isn’t at stake. 

Durant...

    I’ve found myself getting caught up in the Durant nonsense and checking constantly to see what choice he’s made.  Is he going to pick a new team?  Is he going back to the Thunder?  For how many years?  This is completely absurd.  I was having a conversation with a friend of mine today about Derrick Rose and I was saying that I really like him as a player and he seems like a good guy and then I remembered he’s facing gang rape charges. 

     I make a concerted effort not to make any judgments about something in the news until there are actual facts out there to be read and digested.  Virtually nothing has been leaked about the Derek Rose case so far.  It’s purely a TMZ type thing and reputable news outlets have released very little information.  Thus, I feel it’s stupid for me to make any kind of assessment of what I think may or may not have happened.  Why should I take any side when I don’t have any actual facts about the case and I don’t know any of the involved parties?  I try to keep an open mind until there is more information out there.  Recently, Michael Gira of the Swans was accused by Larkin Grimm of rape.  There was an instant uproar and all across the Internet and people took sides.  Most of what I read in that case involved believing the accuser.  When these things become news we know very little initially and it seems like in that case a rape most likely did not occur.  But it’s important to remember that I don’t know either the accused or the accuser and I am not a policeman and I cannot possibly have all the relevant facts in the case and thus I truly cannot even fathom what actually happened between these two (to me) strangers.  There are plenty of other examples where things go the opposite way, where the consensus does not believe the woman who is rightfully making an accusation (see Cosby, Bill).  

     Coming back to Rose this means, that for me, I can’t possibly know what to think about what happened with a woman he knew in a hotel room and what was consensual and what was not.  I choose to keep an open mind and I’m rooting for the guy from a basketball standpoint but I’m prepared that at any point I could find that I was rooting for a bad person.  I work in a bar in NYC and I can truly say that you can never know another person completely.  You might think someone is totally cool and then you discover they’ve been stealing or you might think someone sucks and then you find out there a kind intelligent human being.  People are a constant surprise.  

     So back to Durant, he’ll sign with a team any moment now and it really won’t affect my life anymore right now then it will in a few days when there is more information out there about what he was thinking and why.  The real rush is artificially created by news outlets which all want to have the hottest and fastest take on everything.  They want you to get caught up and to make judgments and predictions before anyone else does.  Everyone wants to be the first to break a news story but this really makes no sense to me.  I’ll patiently read someone who has some interesting and well thought out things to say about facts he or she has taken the time to gather thank you… Oh and by the way let's remember that we're all anticipating the decision of a very young man who is determining where he is going to spend the next years (year?) with his family.  It ain't life or death and it's his right to live and work anywhere he wants.

Thoughts about the finals before the pivotal game 7:

     First off, I thought this series was over after the first couple games.  Golden State just looked so much better then The Cavaliers.  It was hard to imagine how The Cavs could reconcile the failings of their roster: that they either had defensive players or offensive players on the court and other then Lebron they were rarely encompassed in the same individual.  When Cleveland won game 3 it was still hard to believe The Warriors wouldn’t come back and win the next game.  It seemed like everything turned after game four with the utterance of the word “bitch.”  Since then The Cavaliers have been a different team.  Just some quick thoughts after watching the last few games…

1. Career speaking Lebron James has got to shoot better.  He’s still completely amazing but the biggest change from the beginning of this series to now is that he is both taking open jumpers and making them.  The Warriors have been giving him such a big cushion and packing the paint that it gums up everything the Cavs try and do.  Earlier in the series (and this whole playoffs) Lebron was reluctant to shoot anything beyond a few feet from the basket.  It’s hard to run an offense this way unless he were to turn into a primarily back to the basket player.  By hitting some jumpers so much opens up for the Cavs and becomes easier on the offensive end.  Soon he will no longer be the most dominant physical presence on the court in every game and at that point he’s going to want a reliable jumper.  It just makes everything so much easier for him.  Not that my opinion matters but I strongly recommend he hires a great shot coach over the summer and that he spends less time working out and more time on honing his jumper.  The next few years of his career could go easy or hard for him and I think a reliable jumper will make all the difference…

2. Is something wrong with Curry?  That’s the question everyone is asking.  It’s easy to say he just doesn’t look right.  He’s definitely not moving jitterbug style on the court and his jumper looks way too dependent lately on his arms rather then his legs.  For someone so small and slight even the slightest physical slowing is going to make it hard to get off a shot.  So that would lead me to wonder if he is indeed healthy, but the truth is that no one on the court can be fully healthy at this point in the season.  They’re all tired.  Perhaps the defense in the playoffs is more physical and the traps are harder and defenses are better prepared and health is not really to blame for Curry’s fall off.  He’s still been a very good player in the finals but he has not been the transcendent force in this series or in fact for the whole playoffs that he was in the regular season.  Still, whether he is unstoppable or not, he forces defenses to scramble in ways that virtually no other player does on offense.  Even when he’s not scoring big he’s a huge factor as to the shots his team gets on offense.  I can’t help but feel like when he’s open he’s not guaranteed to make it the way I felt during the season.  Whether that’s due to health issues or because the Cavs are forcing him out of his comfort zone is a fine line that is hard to draw…

3. I’ve been saying for a while that sometimes dudes just miss and sometimes they hit shots and the difference is more often then not in there somewhere rather then in schemes and effort.  As Jeff Van Gundy says, “it’s a make or miss league,” and he’s right.  When shots fall everything becomes easier.  It’s definitely possible to take dudes out of their comfort zone and force more misses but bottom line, there are dudes that will hit shots anyway on any given night.  Irving looks awesome when he’s hitting tough shots and terrible when he’s not but I’m not sure anything is different in how he’s playing other then the ball going in or not.  It helps when he’s more decisive but either way he’s going to take tough shots.  Same goes for Curry or really anyone on the court.  We’ve seen a lot of back and forth blowouts in which a team that was destroyed one day comes back and annihilate the other team the next.  It’s not just a change in effort that differentiates these games or a change in scheme but simply that shots went in one night where they didn’t another night.  It sucks to think it’s that simple sometimes but I’m afraid it often is.  There are little things that occur to put players in and out of comfort along the way but they mean perhaps a little less then we think.

4. Harrison Barnes cannot hit a shot.  I’m not sure much more can be said to elaborate on this subject.  He’s getting plenty of open looks but they’re just not going in.  With every miss his paycheck for next season is most likely diminishing.  He also cannot guard Lebron.  It’s been a tough finals for him…

5. For offensive guards who play only one end has Irving just been much better then Curry?  He doesn’t involve the rest of his team the way Curry does so it’s not just about scoring and making shots.  Even when Curry doesn’t score he opens things up for his teammates in a way that Kyrie does not but bottom line Kyrie has been a much better scorer in the finals then Curry.  Moving forward Kyrie has got to learn to score without possessing the ball so long before his shot.  If he were able to be quicker and more decisive about his actions he’d be so much better.  Some of that is on the system whereby they pretty much give him the ball with no action and need him to get off a shot before the shot clock winds down.  He’s not so gifted in size or athleticism so he has to execute a number of moves to get the separation to get off his shot.  At some point they need to channel his skills into a system that better involves the team a la what Golden State has done with Curry.

6. Curry is committing some terrible fouls.  What exactly is he thinking?  Game 6 I couldn’t see even a questionable foul other then perhaps his fifth.  These are obvious and dumb fouls.  Perhaps his fifth foul was unwarranted but he reached twice in a row.  The first seemed like a foul and the second didn’t but it was close and it’s the kind of possession in a game where you just can’t take the chance when you’re in foul trouble.  Just play positional defense and don’t try for the steal.  It’s just not smart basketball.  It seems to me that the Cavs are being very physical with Curry and he’s trying to be physical back and he’s just not very good at it.  There’s an art to knowing when you can get away with hitting the offensive player and when you can’t.  Curry could have easily been called for a reach on Lebron James at the 7:35 mark at which point he would have fouled out.  This brings up another interesting point.  Lebron is a physical player and even more importantly a physical specimen.  It’s easier to ignore fouls against a dude that other people bounce off of.  Consequently I have rarely seen a team reach as much as the Warriors have against Lebron this series and commit so few fouls.  The Warriors are obviously good at it and they’ve watched a lot of film and are swiping down when Lebron gathers the ball but they’re still hard reaches and have rarely been called fouls in this series. 

7. Injuries.  For the first time in the last couple years the Warriors are dealing with poorly timed injuries.  Iguodala’s back injury was particularly devastating in game 6 especially since Barnes has been unable to match up against James and has played so poorly overall.  Bogut’s injury hurts as well as prolonged small ball is not nearly as effective when it’s not a change of pace.  Golden State misses Bogut’s rim protection.  These kinds of injuries are what every team deals with and it’s important to keep in mind how much luck is involved in winning it all.  The owners of Golden State can praise themselves all they want for their genius but a large part of winning is the luck of being healthy at the right time.  You can help that luck by resting your players and utilizing your bench as the Warriors have done but it’s still luck.

8. James expends so much energy on both ends of the court.  It’s not easy to both play great offense and great defense and be the focal point of everything your team does on offense.  There are a few great two-way players but they don’t shoulder the offensive load generally that Lebron does.  Clay Thompson for instance plays hard on both ends but he rarely plays as many minutes as James and the Golden State offense isn’t dependent on him being involved in every action.  He can get moments of rest here and there on the court when he needs them.  For James, he only rests when Kyrie is cooking and chooses to go one on one.

9. The Warriors may yet win this series but part of their problem has been that they simply do not fear the Cavaliers at all.  Consequently I think they have not taken them very seriously and their effort has not been as good as it could have been.  Without the proper respect of your opponent it can be easy to avoid the desperation it takes to win these kinds of ballgames.  The Cavs are not as talented as Golden State but they are

Desperate to win… and they’ve got Lebron James.  It’s been clear from quotes and body language both before and after the Draymond confrontation that the Warriors do not fear James’ abilities.  That’s problematic.  He’s still the best player on the court in every game and when he hits shots it’s going to be very difficult to beat him.  Golden State has the attitude that they just play their game and they can’t be beat.  In the end they may be right but for a team that freaks out every time they are slighted their arrogance towards other good players is palpable.  Eventually you anger the wrong dude and you miss a few shots and you pay for it.  Draymond plays hard and I respect him for that but he does and says shit that is just crazy.  Screaming in Steven Adam’s face after hitting a shot is all well and good (actually it’s super annoying) but doing the same thing to Lebron is just not smart.  One guy won’t do much to shut you up, the other just might.

10. The last point brings me here: I cannot believe the leeway the refs give to Green.  He complains so vociferously and so emphatically after every call.  He reached twice on Lebron towards the end of the game 6, clearly two fouls in a row, and then freaked out and screamed in the refs face when it was correctly whistled a foul.  How does he not get a technical for this?  I read that at one point during the playoffs DeMarcus Cousins was incredulous that Green didn’t get called for more technicals.  I’m sure he’s watching Golden State and thinking I don’t complain any more then Draymond.  Why is he allowed to get away with it and I am not (Note that I am arguing neither one should be allowed to get away with it). 

11. My favorite thing the Cavs have done in this series is to relentlessly pick on Curry's defense.  The Cavs have treated Curry like the Warriors have treated Love when he's on the court.  Involve him in every play until his defense crumbles.  It's a great old school strategy that both wears Curry down and puts some doubts in his mind.  No one likes knowing that the other team thinks their defense is so terrible that any matchup is a mismatch...

12. On to game 7.  I’m leaning towards the Warriors taking it but for the first time this season the Cavs have made me doubt that Golden State will win it all.  My gut instinct is that the Cavs have put doubt into the Warriors and that they’ll win but I’m still picking Golden State because I still cannot wrap my mind around how the Thunder lost to them.  In that series as well it just seemed like the Thunder were clearly better and had Golden State on the ropes and yet the Warriors pulled out the series.  So until someone actually beats them I’m just going to assume they’re going to win.  I like both teams more or less but for the first time this playoffs I’m rooting hard for the Cavs to pull it out.  Cleveland needs this way more then Silicon Valley needs this…

Playoff Preview (feeling more optimistic)

          I’m feeling more optimistic now that the season is coming to a close and we’ll soon be jumping into the playoffs.  Golden State went for 73 wins against the very strange collection of NBA castoffs and characters that is the Grizzlies and won.  Matt Barnes did his best to knock Curry out of the playoffs short of getting kicked out but it didn’t work.  The little guy is tougher than he looks. The collection of characters on the mash unit that is the Grizzlies is hilarious.  Barnes, Born Ready, the Birdman, P.J. Hairston, and Zach Randolph is an extremely strange group of weirdoes.  I was really hoping that these misfits would play the Clippers in the first round but instead they’re going to be demolished by the Spurs.  They would have lost to the Clippers as well but I guarantee there would have been some dudes getting kicked out for flagrant fouls.  I love to watch the Spurs play against anyone but I’m not sure I’m going to be glued to Memphis vs. San Antonio.  – I’m predicting a San Antonio sweep -- 

           

            Those Clippers are going to square up against Portland and that actually might be an interesting match up.  Portland’s front line will be a bit over matched but at least there’s the potential of an upset.  The Clippers should pull it out, but mentally they’re a bit of a fragile team and were Portland to win one of the games in Los Angeles I could see the Clippers tightening up.  I’ll be surprised if LA doesn’t pull it out eventually.  Portland is a couple rotation players away from being a really dangerous team.  If LA doesn’t go at least a few rounds deep I think they might have to undergo wholesale changes by the next season.  There’s a lot on the line in the playoffs for the core of Griffin, Jordan, and Paul.  Doc the GM will have some soul searching to do if they don’t make it to the finals.  That’s a tough position for a team that is clearly the 3^rd or 4^th best in the West and is looking at facing the Golden State juggernaut in the second round.  Can Doc say that the season wasn’t a bust if they get knocked out in the 2^nd round even if it’s to the eventual champions?  Portland is playing with house money.  No matter the outcome of the series their season was an incredible success.  Terry Stotts worked miracles with this team and Lillard and McCollum stepped up and established a core back court for years to come.  –I’m picking Clippers in 6 --

            OKC vs. Dallas should not be competitive given all the injuries the Mavericks have suffered.  Rick Carlisle is too good a coach though to get swept.  They’ll win a game or two and you’ll wonder how it happened.  OKC is flawed, but Westbrook and Durant are too talented to lose this series.  The future for both teams is murky and confusing.  I can’t in any way see how switching from Brooks to Donovan as coach helped the Thunder.  They play virtually the same alternating one on one style of basketball.  They’re still searching for five guys who can be on the court when things really matter.  It’s both bad coaching and bad GM work in tandem when there are no clear-cut solutions for your roster.  They’ve got offensive lineups that aren’t that great and defensive lineups that don’t scare anyone and not enough effective two-way players.  I truly have no idea how Cantor is making so much money to play basketball.  Any team dependent on Dion Waiters for anything is in trouble.  And yet, they’ve got two of the best few players in the game.  The talent of Durant and Westbrook can be transcendent though neither one has learned to play off the ball comfortably.  Durant is one of the greatest scorers ever but if you compare him to Curry you see a couple small flaws.  Curry can dominate the ball one on one but he’s comfortable passing it off and switching to running off screens mode which allows the team to run different sets and gets everyone else involved.  Neither Durant nor Westbrook is comfortable in this role and the over all goal of their offense is to get one or the other into their comfort spots on the floor so that they can school someone.  This is old time ball that is capable of working but seems antiquated in today’s NBA.  It can work if one of your guys is channeling Jordan but that’s tough given modern defense and the ability for teams to zone up and switch and overload.  OKC should scare the crap out of everyone they play in the playoffs but eventually Westbrook will fire up too many errant 3 pointers and their offense will stagnate and someone will execute them out of the gym.  I have no idea what happens to Dallas going forward.  They just don’t look positioned to make many moves next year but they’ve got Carlyle and so they’ll compete for the playoffs no matter what.  Championship aspirations for them seem distant.  OKC’s future is murky too.  They need to go deep into the playoffs and play well.  Unfortunately they’re looking at San Antonio in the second round.  Chances are that they do not win that series but they’ve definitely got a chance.  They are precisely the kind of athletic team that would create problems for San Antonio in the past.  I don’t think that’s the case this season though.  Kawhi can make Durant work and the Spurs can afford to put Green on Westbrook as the Thunder still haven’t located a competent off guard.  In past games OKC has tried to punish Tony Parker on the block with Waiters but frankly San Antonio’s goal should be to have Waiters shoot as much as he wants.  Yes, go ahead and punish our little guard if it means Waiters island becoming a more remote location.  Another difference for the Spurs this year is that Aldridge makes them much more athletic and big on the front line.  His overall size is under rated and he’s much quicker than you might think looking at him.  Like the Clippers, OKC is in the unenviable position of potentially being knocked out of the playoffs early enough to put doubt in the mind of Durant that it’s worth returning.  What’s going to change in the next few seasons for OKC?  -- I’m picking OKC in 6 --

            Golden State vs. Houston is not terribly exciting to me.  You’ll see Harden get fouled a great deal and he’ll dominate the ball and put up big numbers but Thompson matches up pretty well with him.  Beverley will piss off Curry but outside of deliberately hurting Curry and knocking him out of the series (I wouldn’t put this past him) the Rockets are just too outmatched to make this interesting.  Fortunately Golden State is good fun enough to watch that they can probably overcome the boredom of watching Harden shoot free throws and make these games worth watching to some extant.  Houston will have a lot of off-season decisions to make.  What is the market for Howard?  Even if it’s less then he wants it to be I just don’t see him returning.  Beyond Harden what do they have?  It’s going to take some serious magic to resuscitate this team.  Amazing considering they were in the conference finals last year (that took a lot of luck though).  I don’t see what the point of firing McHale was?  Why didn’t they let him play out the season?  As for Golden State, contrary to what Barkley might think, I find it hard to imagine they don’t win it all.  Anything can happen I suppose and certainly an injury could radically change their fortunes (they been really lucky with injuries although it helps that they don’t play anyone too many minutes over the course of the season), but they are clearly the best team and the dominant team can usually win out in a best of seven series. 

One more thing I’d like to point out that fascinated me on the last night of the regular season.  Contrast Curry’s 46 points on 24 shots (10 for 19 from 3 and 5 for 5 from 2) in 29 minutes with Kobe’s 60 points on 50 shots (6 for 21 from 3 and 16 for 29 from 2) in 42 minutes for the last game of the season and you can extrapolate a difference in eras.  It’s amazing how much efficiency is valued in today’s NBA compared to the past.  Both games were exciting but Curry was incredibly efficient in helping his team win their 73^rd game of the year and Kobe was incredibly inefficient in helping his team win their 17^th game of the season.  Allen Iverson just got into the hall of fame and don’t get me wrong.  I loved Iverson.  What he did at his size was amazing.  But just imagine if he could have learned to shoot.  What Curry has done this season is unprecedented.  He’s averaged over 30 points per game and shot over 50% from the field for the season, over 45% from 3, and over 90% from the line.  That’s just crazy.  – I’m picking Golden State in a sweep --

            The East, on paper at least, has some interesting matchups from a competitive standpoint.  I don’t think anyone will beat Cleveland but every team out there has a chance to make them sweat. They are a fragile team from a psychological standpoint that seems like they genuinely don’t like each other and they’re completely dependent on the continuing dominance of Lebron James.  Without him they are terrible.  We’ve seen over the last month or so that he still has another gear few players can match but what happens when Irving dribbles too much and fails to get any assists and when Love bricks 3 pointers and plays atrocious defense?  Lebron can sulk and sometimes his greatness is more of the watch him go variety than the inspirational variety.  The Cleveland organization has once again made huge personnel mistakes and put a flawed collection of misfits around James.  I feel like the Cleveland organization learned nothing from their original mistakes the first time around with Lebron.  Once again they rushed into constructing a team with no flexibility that overpays role players.  Like OKC they have no idea what 5 players should be on the court when games matter.  Detroit is just happy to be in the playoffs and though they should be over matched they might be loose and that’s dangerous.  They have some talent and Van Gundy is a much better coach than anyone in Cleveland.  I could see them winning a game or two and getting Lebron pissed off at some of his teammates but they’re not going to win the series.  That’s fine.  Van Gundy has them headed in the right direction and they should be better next season and well positioned for the future.  Cleveland on the other hand must get to the finals.  Even doing so will not make their season a success.  They don’t have to win it all to keep their team but they definitely have to be competitive and close to winning in the finals or Lebron is going to start demanding they do their best to trade all the dudes he doesn’t like for his friends.  My crystal ball tells me there’s going to be a lot of soul searching in Cleveland over the off-season as Lebron is not good enough to beat either the Warriors or the Spurs… -- I’m predicting Cleveland in 5--

            Atlanta vs. Boston is actually going to be really fun to watch (for me at least).  Both teams are well coached and play fun basketball.  Millsap rarely gets mentioned as a top player but he totally kicks butt.  Horford is good, Korver remembered how to shoot and Teague and Schroeder can be dangerous on a given night.  They’re not overly talented but they are well coached and everyone knows their role.  Brad Stevens must be a great coach because while Boston has a lot of really nice bench players they don’t have many clear-cut starters.  Stevens gets the most out of his players.  I feel like too often NBA coaches minimize the psychology of playing basketball whereby anyone who has ever played pick up knows that when you play with a bunch of dudes who think you can shoot and encourage you to do so you always shoot better.  Confidence, even for people who are clearly good at what they do, is so important.  Stevens seems to have the knack for putting his players in the right positions and for getting the most out of their abilities.  No one seems tight or confused as to what their role is on the floor.  Pretty amazing for a coach so young.  Bradley and Smart can make it hell for opposing guards to get to where they want to go.  Whether Atlanta wins or loses they are going to have some serious decisions to make in the off-season as to whom to sign and for how much.  There are many different directions their organization could go.  Boston should be in excellent shape going forward.  They’ve got a lot of picks but until now Ainge has kept all his options open.  At some point they’ll have to decide how many picks to keep and whether to make a big trade or to go young.  There’s no clear-cut path to success for Boston but at the same time there are still many paths they could take to become successful and that, in of itself, is exciting… -- For me this series is 50/50.  I could see either team winning and if I had to pick I’d probably go with Atlanta in 7)—

            Miami vs. Charlotte is, for me at least, another exciting match up I could see unfolding in either direction.  These teams are pretty much evenly matched with perhaps a slight edge I’d give to Miami.  I’m happy to watch both of them play basketball.  Kemba changed the fortunes of this team when he learned to shoot 3s.  It has dramatically opened up their game.  It’s crazy how something so simple can change the fortunes of a franchise.  That little bit of extra space on the court has opened up the offensive game of the entire team.  Lynsanity has also continued to improve steadily.  He’s an excellent bench player in the NBA who, when he’s hot, can be used in a bigger role along side Walker.  They have a plethora of big men who do different things for them and they can give you a number of different looks.  Their concerted effort to push the pace has made them much more exciting to watch.  Miami is intriguing as well.  They’ve figured out somewhat how to use Whiteside’s constant threat of the lob and he’s developed just enough of a shot to surprise you from time to time.  It’ll be interesting to see how much Wade has left in the tank.  Their key has been unlocking the mystery of Dragic.  For a while there I was wondering what happened to the dude that looked great in Phoenix.  As it turns out Dragic is really only capable of playing one way and Miami finally realized that.  They’re playing much faster and letting him attack.  I’m feeling like this series could go either way but if I had to pick I’d go with Miami in seven.  Riley did an amazing job rebuilding this team on the fly.  If they’d stayed healthy I might have been able to envision them knocking off Cleveland but unfortunately without a healthy Bosh for that outcome is not going to come to fruition…

            Toronto vs. Indiana should be fun to watch.  Indiana both surprised me and disappointed me at various parts of this season.  There was a point I felt like they were turning a corner and were going to be really dangerous but Paul tailed off a bit and Miles Turner hit a bit of a rookie wall.  They’re a good surprise but the surprise has worn off a bit and now they’re just looking mediocre.  This was a rebuilding year for them anyway so they shouldn’t be too disappointed in losing this series.  I can envision a scenario whereby Paul turns it up and is the best player on the floor and all the pieces step up and this series goes their way but Toronto is the better team and should finally win a playoff series.  It’s Toronto in the playoffs though so you never know what might collapse.  This year’s team feels a little better than the past year’s.  Maybe it’s just because Loughery is in better shape and they know more what to expect.  They’ve been playing with a bit more of an edge.  The future of this team is definitely on the line though.  There will certainly be wholesale changes if they don’t beat Indiana and they will consider a lot of options for sure if they don’t make it as far as the conference finals.  Indiana needs to take their time and continue to rebuild in the off-season.  It will be essential that they nail the draft again as I don’t see many free agents lining up to play there.  – I’m predicting Toronto in 6 or possibly 5 --