As the season winds down...

            I haven’t written much since earlier in the season.  This somehow went from a very exciting season to a kind of boring season quite quickly.  Other than Golden State and San Antonio most of the big stories are kind of depressing.  The other contenders for the title all seem like pretenders.  Frankly I think anyone knocking off Golden State would be an upset at this point and that includes San Antonio.  The Spurs are a great team but the Warriors have another gear that no one else can match.  Even the Spurs are left hoping that Golden State simply misses some shots and leaves them a window.  It’s a possibility but if I was a betting person I’d definitely bet on Golden State. 

     After Golden State and San Antonio the quality of the teams this season becomes significantly murkier.  Cleveland is a dysfunctional mess but they’re not even an exciting mess.  It’s just not that interesting dissecting cryptic Lebron James tweets.  It’s hard to tell if Cleveland will be beatable in the East.  The regular season means nothing to them and other than wrapping up the number one seed in the East there’s just isn’t anything for which they are playing.  Cleveland’s winning or losing is almost entirely built upon the greatness of Lebron.  They don’t run much of an offense.  If Love and Irving hit some shots and play ok then they generally win.  As a team Cleveland certainly doesn’t inspire much.  Miami looks like they might have a shot against them particularly if Bosh is able to come back.  That would be pretty ironic if Miami made it to the finals knocking out Lebron.  It’s clear that Riley is a much better puppet master than anyone else in the east.

       Toronto also qualifies as a positive story but given their post-season play the last couple years nothing they do in the regular season really matters until they put together some wins in the playoffs.  This season feels different for The Raptors but then again so did last season.  That’s pretty much it in the East.  Atlanta has played much better the second half of the season but it’s hard to imagine them doing anything against Cleveland.  The Hornets are a nice story.  Kemba Walker finally taught himself to shoot, but they too have no chance to win the East.  The Pistons have been fun but they’re still a few years away from any chance at contention.  It’s a good story though.  The bad stories seem to far outweigh the good.  Chicago has been the number one disappointment in the league (excepting perhaps the Rockets).  They just proved the other night that they’re a bad match up for Cleveland but they’ve been a mysteriously dysfunctional mess all season.  You get the feeling no one likes each other and that Hoiberg was not ready to coach an NBA team.  No way does Thibodeaux miss the playoffs with this team.  Milwaukee has to be disappointed taking a dramatic step back this season.  At least they have some nice cornerstone players.  Antetokounmpo looks like he might have found a role at point guard and Jabari is starting to look like he’s got some potential as a good player (it usually takes a solid year to come back from his kind of injury).  Middleton is a nice player but after that there’s not a whole lot there.  I’m not a fan of the Greg Monroe trade they made.  He can put up some numbers as he did with Detroit previously but he doesn’t do much for a team.  He also made them more conventional then they were last year.  The Knicks are dismal and depressing in every way.  The Unicorn is the only thing that keeps them interesting but I’m worried that it’s too appropriate of a nickname.  Unicorns are mythical beasts and they’re not real.  Towns is real.  He’s already a top 20 player in the NBA.  Porzingis is still a project.  It’s hard to know what he’ll end up being. 

            Washington is a huge disappointment as well.  They’ve got good players and I like some of their draft picks.  They’re long and interchangeable.  On paper I don’t understand why this team is not better.  I feel like a good coach could dramatically change the fortunes of this team next season.  How Randy Wittman is still an NBA head coach I’m not sure. 

            Brooklyn and Philadelphia are so depressing they’re not even worth talking about.  The only thing I’ll say further about Philly is that in a weird way while I totally disagree with how they’ve run their team, I’m not sure I agree with firing Hinkie.  I mean everyone in that organization had to sign off on this stupid plan.  What really changed such that they decided things weren’t working?  I suppose that while plenty of teams have tanked no one has ever taken it this far and probably never will again.  The stupidity of playing the numbers like they’ve done is that no matter how many draft picks you get the odds of getting a Lebron type talent are still bad.  It’s not worth historically sucking to add a few percentage points to your chance at a number one pick that might not even be as good as the 13^th pick of the draft.  If Hinkie had nailed one draft pick that might have given him some leeway with Philly’s fans and their management and the NBA powers that be.  His picks were conventional and obvious and didn’t inspire any confidence that he was a good judge of young talent and potential.  His plan depended 100% on that ability.  One could say time will tell if it was all worth it but I don’t agree.  At this point they needed to have 1 player with potential star power to make that kind of losing palatable.  I could go on and on but who really cares about Philly.  Other teams will tank but no one will ever treat their players that poorly again…

            In the West it’s been great watching San Antonio and Golden State but most every other team other than Portland has been a huge disappointment.  The Rockets collapsed completely.  They should have kept Mchale as their coach.  The Clippers imploded and yet stayed afloat.  They’re still one of only two teams with a chance to knock off San Antonio or Golden State but they’ve stayed pretty much the same or are slightly worse while those other two teams have managed to get even better than last year.  OKC will always be dangerous with 2 transcendent talents but they still aren’t fun to watch and barely run an offense and have done a terrible job of putting pieces around Durant and Westbrook.  Memphis and Dallas had too many injuries and have limped into the playoffs.  They’re sad to watch.  Memphis as least has enough crazy dudes that if they play the Clippers it’d be worth watching for the drama.  Utah hasn’t really improved much from last season.  Other teams just dropped off giving them a window into the playoffs but they don’t inspire much.  At least they seem to play Golden State well, so that match up could at least lead to a few close games.

            Out of Sacramento, New Orleans, Denver, Minnesota, Phoenix, and L.A., only Minnesota seems to have any kind of hope for next season.  If they get a real coach they could be a playoff team with a lot of young potential.  It would really help if they could nail one more draft pick.  The other five teams mentioned above are barely worth talking about at this point.  Anthony Davis disappointed and the roster around him stinks.  Sacramento entertains only in a rubber necking sense.  I find Cousins reprehensible on the court.  He would easily be the least fun to play with of anyone in the NBA.  I can’t believe the shit he says to the refs.  I’m actually amazed he doesn’t get even more technical than he does.  Denver surprisingly, of the after thoughts in the West, might be the most on the right track.  At least they’ve gathered a few interesting young players and kept a few useful veterans around.  If they continue on that track and stay healthy next year (big ifs) they could be worth watching. 

            Hopefully the playoffs will turn this all around and we’ll get some exciting games but the second half of this season has been, for the most part, more about collapse than  achievement…

Thoughts as of 3/7

            How is it that Manu Ginobili comes back from testicular surgery not only without anyone knowing (word was he might not even make it back for the playoffs) and totally kills it having his best game of the season and looking great.  15 minutes, 8 for 11 from the field,  Plus 10 +/-, for 22 points.  That’s incredibly efficient.  It’s easy to forget how good that guy has been for his career.  And while we’re on the subject of the Spurs no coach in the NBA will play his bench like Popovich.  He’s not in the least afraid to roll out any combination of players, partly because no matter who he sits for games and who he puts out there his players compete and know what they’re doing.  On any given night he’ll start Simmons and Kyle Anderson.  Or perhaps he’ll start Bonner in the second half of a game against say Sacramento even though Bonner has barely played this season.  Of course he comes out and hits two three’s.  Everyone on the team is ready to play and Popovich is ready to play them.  That’s just unheard of in the NBA…

            Exactly how does Golden State get blown out on national TV by the Lakers?  Truly anything can happen on a given night in basketball.  Bottom line is that if you shoot badly it’s really hard to win.  Even the best teams are dependent on being able to put the ball in the basket.  Golden State shot terribly against the Lakers and similarly San Antonio couldn’t hit anything against Indiana until it was too late on Monday.  The tendency is when the better team is really cold defense becomes harder to play and often the worse team will get hot.  It happens.  I don’t think either San Antonio or Golden State should worry too much but I do wonder if Golden State’s pursuit of Chicago’s record is a good idea.  The pressure of winning so many games in the regular season is pretty high and they should be remotely concerned about burning themselves out.  Frankly the regular season record means nothing if they don’t win the championship. 

            Strangely though Golden State is in a position where a regular season game against a terrible team (the Magic) is strangely meaningful.  Getting blown out by a terrible team makes other teams smell blood.  All season teams have been demoralized by Golden State.  Losing to Orlando would have given hope and confidence to the rest of the league.  Golden State managed a win but it wasn’t easy.  The Magic aren’t winning a lot of games but they’ve got a lot of talent and they’re competitive.  It’s just a matter of time before they’re good…

            I talked last week about how being good should have value even if it never leads to a championship.  I may have failed to mention Atlanta as a prime example.  They are an awesome team to watch when they’re dialed in as they are right now and though they have no chance at all of winning it all this year they’re fun to watch.  I also didn’t mention an important point that not only is a good team a better fan experience but in many markets it’s the difference between making or losing money as an organization.  It’s easy for pundits to tell Memphis or Atlanta to blow it up but Grit and Grind sells tickets.  Not every market is NYC where Dolan can put a crap product on the court year after year and still sell out.  Even the Nets are realizing that a terrible team means you have to lower ticket prices and no Billionaire likes to lose money even for a vanity project like owning a professional sports team. 

            The Cavs won against Boston which was surprisingly an important game for them.  Boston has given them problems.  It’s not a good sign that Love was only 1 for 6 though.  I don’t think they use him too well but at some point he’s got to take responsibility for his own play.  He is just not nearly the player he was in Minnesota.  Is that because he’s a bad team good stats player or because his skillset has tailed off?  It’s hard to tell.  I tend to think with this sample size that he just wasn’t as good as he seemed but he’s a little bit better than he’s playing now.  The good teams in the East have given the Cavs problems including Toronto and Chicago.  Chicago is suddenly at full strength and ready to make a push (Jimmy Butler, like Ginobili made a quick recovery) for the playoffs and Toronto is slowly creeping up on the Cavs for the best record in the East.  Until Toronto wins a playoff series though it’s hard to take them seriously.

            I wrote the last paragraph yesterday.  Apparently Jimmy Butler had swelling in his knee and his back is acting up after 1 game back.  Chicago’s fortunes are 100% tied up in Butler’s health.  If he can play soon they’ll make the playoffs and be dangerous.  If he can’t they could fall out of the playoffs and even if they make it they’re not beating anyone without him.  Having said that they had a big win Monday against Milwaukee to maintain their playoff hopes.  It’s easy to forget how good people thought Jabari Parker would be.  He’s shown some flashes lately of being a really good player now that he’s finally healthy.  He’s got a lot of skill and speed for a relatively large human being…

A few thoughts for the Weekend...

1. Listening and reading a lot of basketball news and analysis I’ve come across a theme that most NBA intelligencia believe it is pointless to be good unless it leads to a championship.  Pundits are constantly calling for the breakup of teams when they can’t see a clear road to a championship.  Why is winning a championship everything?  Being good is valuable too.  Having a local team that’s fun to watch would be really nice.  This is the time in the season when everyone wonders what’s the point of teams like Atlanta or Memphis.  The point is that they play basketball that’s actually worth watching.  Yes they’re not going to win it all but at least it’s worth going to games.  There’s value in being good.  It’s okay losing a lot if the team you like has young players with potential that are fun to see grow.  Minnesota sucks this year but they’ve got a young core and there’s some potential there.  People forget that OKC with Durant and Westbrook were very terrible for a number of years before they turned the corner.  I'm sure even those fan bases would sacrifice a championship mentality for some wins.  And then there are teams that are just plain bad and it’s hard to see a clear way forward.  Draft picks might make sense on paper but future picks don’t put a worthwhile product on the court.  Teams like Philadelphia and New York are just plain depressing to watch.  I’m just thinking there’s more value to having a local team that plays basketball well then most pundits credit.  Championships aren’t everything when you have to watch shitty ball year after year…

2. Lately Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf has been mentioned as an under rated player who could shoot off the dribble like Stephen Curry.  Please.  There are a few similarities but their stats don’t even remotely compare.   By modern NBA standards Rauf was just not a good shooter.  In his best season he was .392 from three-point land.  That’s ok but it’s a far cry from the top shooters in the league these days.  His career percentage was in the low 30s.  Let’s stop making this comparison immediately please…

3. I was thinking that maybe I would have to eat my words about Chicago being able to challenge Cleveland but lately Cleveland has seemed pretty beatable.  There are a number of teams in the East that might be able to put up a fight against Cleveland in a series.  Boston and Toronto in particular have made it clear that Cleveland won’t have a cakewalk to the finals.  They’re still the favorites in my mind because you have to assume Lebron has another gear until he proves he doesn’t.  But having said that Lebron is not aging well.  Lebron’s shot is clearly not as good as it used to be and though he can still overpower most anyone, he’s not quite as strong or as fast as he once was.  His shot was always a bit erratic but he’s going to need to spend this next off-season worrying less about his strength and conditioning and more about developing his skill level.  There will come a point some day when he isn’t the strongest and fastest dude on the court and when that day comes he’ll want a consistent jump shot to stay on top…

4. The Spurs just keep rolling along.  I watched them basically dismantle the Rockets in the first quarter this weekend.  Kawhi is so good and efficient.  His value can be seen not only by his fantastic shooting but that the Spurs defense dropped off a cliff when he was injured recently.  Due to the Warriors the Spurs are having the greatest season of any team in the history of basketball to which absolutely no one is paying attention...

Post All-star break initial thoughts...

     Let me start by stating I have zero interest in anything that involves all-star weekend except perhaps there were a few badass dunks between Aaron Gordon and Zach Lavine.  Moving on...

     I watched Utah Vs. Washington the other night.  I was listening to the Washington announcers and it’s never a good sign when the local announcers sound like they constantly expect their team to make mistakes and collapse.  Washington has a good team in there somewhere.  I like their length with Otto Porter and Garrett Temple.  Both guys seem like they’ll be good players but it’s going to take a few years.  Neither one shoots particularly well but they’ve both got good form and I see their accuracy improving over time.  In a few years if Washington can stay the course there’s a dangerous team of Wall, Beal, Porter, Temple, and Morris.  I’m not a fan of Morris’ attitude but he’s a good, tough player and he really has a good chance to fit right in with Washington.  He’s got length and is strong and can shoot.  All five guys on Washington could be interchangeable with length on defense and all threats on offense.  I’m not sure if Washington is willing to wait it out but if they are this team could be good in a few years.  Utah is hard to figure out.  They’ve been playing very well before the break but did not look good on this night.  They struggle so hard to get shots on offense.  Hood and Hayward are their only consistent threats, but Favors and Gobert should be effective on offense.  Gobert rolls well and Favors has a surprisingly versatile in and out game.  They so clearly lack a viable NBA level point guard to help them get easier shots.  Someone that can run an offense and put pressure on the opposing team.  Trey Burke is clearly not that player and will never be more than a 20-minute a game back up.  Raul Neto is pretty much the equivalent talent of Burke but looks to pass more rather to shoot, which is probably the only reason he’s starting.  In today’s NBA that point guard combination is going to be a major problem and currently it’s keeping Utah from seeing what kind of team they really have.

Biggest/ Favorite surprises of the season so far:

     Blazers:  I can’t believe this team isn’t terrible.  Not only are they not as bad as I thought they’d be but they actually might make the playoffs.  Not only might they make the playoffs but they might be a higher seed then 8^th.  The biggest surprise on this surprising team is clearly C.J. McCollum.  He’s hands down the most improved player of the year.  Last year he averaged 6.8ppg and this year he/s at 21.1ppg.  Lillard is still flawed as a player and though he’s upped his ppg average from 21 to 25.1 that’s mostly due to an increase in attempts now that he’s the main focus of their offense.  His field goal percentages of 42.7% from the field and only 37.2% from 3 point range are not what they should be for someone considered to be a great shooter.  McCollum is at 44.9% and 40.8% respectively.  In addition to his low shooting percentages, Lillard’s defense is still not good.  But he seems to be a good leader who plays hard and gets his team to stay focused.  Intangible qualities that often go unnoticed in a league obsessed with the latest metrics.  Beyond the backcourt there just isn’t a whole lot going on for the Blazers and that’s why I’m so impressed that they are above .500. 

     Rookies: I can’t believe how good last year’s draft was when you get past the lottery.  Obviously Towns is awesome and Porzingis is a Unicorn.  Okafor can score and Russell is on the wrong team with the wrong coach.  But starting from the 10^th pick on is when this draft really separates itself.  Winslow is a good defensive player who could be a good basketball player if he ever learns to shoot.  His mechanics don’t look terrible.  I’m really impressed by Myles Turner.  If this guy had been drafted by the Knicks there would definitely be talk that he was the second coming of Jesus Christ.  Turner was held a bit back by injuries early on but now that he’s healthy he looks really good.  He can shoot and he’s tough inside and he’s big and quick and has a high motor.  Trey Lyles, Devin Booker, and Bobby Portis are all going to be excellent players as well.  Rarely do drafts have so many real potential rotation players beyond the 10^th pick that become apparent in their rookie years.  Usually the post lottery guys take a few years to become something.  There are also a number of other picks like Mudiay and Stanley Johnson and Kaminsky and Cameron Payne and Cauley-Stein that have potential to be legit NBA players.  What I’m trying to say is that it’s about as deep a draft as we’ve had in a while. 

Biggest disappointments right now:

          It was pointed out to me recently that Chicago is probably not a legitimate threat to Cleveland in the East and I would have to agree with that not only because everyone on their team is injured but because they seem a bit directionless.  You never know though. 

     Oklahoma City is just so hit and miss.  Durant and Westbrook are so good but the team around them makes no sense.  Ibaka is nice but after that it’s clear Presti has done a terrible job choosing the supporting cast.  They signed Kantor to way too big a contract.  He’s effective on offense at times but he’s practically unplayable for major minutes due to his atrocious defense.  Watching him lope back on defense is one of my least favorite sights.  It’s not that he’s not trying but that his strides are so awkward and slow.  Waiters likewise is practically unplayable for major minutes and yet he gets them.  Adams is fine but he’s only capable of so much.  Beyond Durant and Westbrook and Ibaka it’s impossible to come up with an ideal five players you’d like on the court at crunch time.  Who do you pick from their lineup as the other two.  There are no good choices.  That doesn’t bode well for them.  On any given night the talent of Durant and Westbrook can overwhelm an opponent but in a seven game series against Golden State or San Antonio I just don’t see it. 

     Minnesota: There’s just too much talent on this team to be as bad as they are.  Please get a real coach…

     Houston: This team is a mess

     San Antonio is a great team but I just don't see anyone beating Golden State at this point.  They're in a class all their own and Curry does things to opposing defenses that no other player can...